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Ten HOT Nuggets
10 | Obsolete!
I’m getting pretty good at hitting 'send' on updates—only to have Trump hit 'post' on Truth Social moments later, instantly making my work obsolete.
Sunday’s Weekender featured this post proclaiming the EU would face a 50% tariff beginning June 1:
Later Sunday, Trump posted this to Truth Social, indicating the 50% tariff would be delayed until July 9:
The highlighted line cracks me up
And here is the latest, indicating forward progress with the EU (posted Monday AM):
Obviously, I’m joking about being completely obsolete—but it’s a good reminder that no one can predict the twists of this trade war roller coaster, no matter how closely you track the headlines or Truth Social.
With that being said, the real takeaway here is about risk management.
We can’t predict the future, but we can take steps to manage risk - and that’s especially critical now that we’re officially into the 2025 growing season.
9 | NEWSFLASH
It almost happened again… but I am late enough this evening that I was able to include this evening’s late-breaking news!
Trump’s Global Tariffs Blocked by US Trade Court -Bloomberg
Trump’s global tariffs were deemed illegal and blocked by the US Court of International Trade in Manhattan earlier today
The ruling can be appealed by the Trump administration in federal court
I only have one question:
Where in the hell did this come from?
If this was even remotely a possibility - why have we not heard about it until NOW?
NEVER.
A.
DULL.
MOMENT.
PS - The market seems to care less about the news as the overnight open was uneventful.
8 | High Stakes
Stakes run highest in the summer, when weather risks and production concerns uncoincidentally collide with peak market volatility.
The result?
A a higher frequency of market highs during the very months when making a sale often proves most difficult.
7 | The Bottom Fifth
Yuck, the “bottom fifth” does NOT have a nice ring to it.
Today, new crop corn closed lower for the fourth straight day, settling near $4.44 - 36 cents below CZ25’s 2025 high near $4.80, set way back on February 20.
So far this year, December corn has traded in a 44-cent range, and today’s close lands in the bottom 20th percentile.
The concern?
History suggests we’re just weeks away from the point of no return:
Perhaps this time is different... right? (sarcasm)
6 | A repeat performance?
Meanwhile, Nov 2025 beans continue to trade at a near-identical level and pattern to new crop futures in 2018 (during the first trade war with China).
The question is: Are we about to see a repeat performance?
Let’s hope not.
Last week, I posted a poll on X asking where followers think corn futures would be if the U.S. wasn’t threatening the world with tariffs.
Zero to 30 cents higher won by a large margin. Interesting that some people voted lower, though!
I just started the same poll, but for beans, this afternoon. Quite frankly - I am a bit shocked at the results so far!
5 | This time IS different
Speaking of differences, there’s a wild divergence between two highly correlated indicators, reflecting growing concerns about long-term inflation or perhaps the United States' ballooning deficit.
First, there’s the 30-year treasury, which climbed above 5% late last week to reach its highest level since October 2023:
Then there’s the US Dollar Index, which continues to chop along, just below 100:
And here’s the striking divergence:
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