Year End HOT TAKE

December 29

Welcome to 2024’s Year End HOT TAKE where I run through the year’s biggest winners, losers, market-makers and those that were taken to the woodshed.

This update includes a mix of old charts and new, in addition to some of my favorite moments of this past year.

Let’s do it!

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2024’s Winners & Losers

It wasn’t exactly a banner year for grains and oilseeds…

While the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and gold had a banner year, leaving our beloved commodities far behind - their gains were only a fraction of the rally in cocoa (+140%), bitcoin (+125%) and orange juice (+60%) in 2024:

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Dollar Dominance

If there was one market that truly dominated in 2024 though, it was the dollar, up 6.5% year-to-date leaving a trail of weaker currencies in its wake.

Notably, the U.S. Dollar Index has surged an impressive 4.5% since the election as markets adjust to a Trump win (and potential tariffs), expect continued economic growth and revise interest rate expectations.

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A tale of two currencies

Soybean futures have fallen off a cliff in 2024, down $3.20 from the near-$13 level we started the year at.

Prices paid to Brazilian producers are a different story however, as the real’s 21.7% depreciation against the dollar in 2024 has wiped out all but 40 cents of those losses.

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Ouch

The chart we all should have paid better attention to: