The Weekender - Special Edition, Part Two

November 24

Part Two

Welcome to the second half of a special update on the unprecedented changes coming at ag markets in the weeks ahead.

In today’s update we will get a little deeper into the predicament at hand as crush plants, fuel blenders and producers prep for January 1, market impacts of the 40A BTC to 45Z transition, global policy changes in 2025, a US soybean oil balance sheet that is tighter than your britches after Thanksgiving dinner, plus what a second Trump term means for U.S. agriculture.

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But first, a refresher on Part One:

« California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard kicked off a revolution in biofuel demand

« The resulting renewable diesel boom caused a transformative shift in the U.S. soybean market

« Today, soybean oil is just as important to the soybean market as weather in Brazil

« Everyone’s favorite veg oil is now getting squeezed by low-CI feedstock alternatives like used cooking oil & tallow

« The long-standing $1 win-by-default 40A blender tax credit is set to expire Dec 31

« 40A is replaced with 45Z which likely cuts the subsidy for biomass-based diesel production from soybean oil by two-thirds