Don’t cry for me, Argentina
Argentina has been making U.S. farmers cry both tears of joy and tears of sorrow in recent weeks.
First, hot and dry weather has capped crop potential, providing support to both the soybean meal and corn markets.
Why?
Meal is the most sensitive to any news re Argentina as it is the long-standing largest meal exporter in the world:
Argentina is also the largest soybean oil exporter in the world:
Argentina’s current soybean crop good/excellent rating has plummeted 27% in just two weeks’ time, with only 22% of the crop rated as such today. As a result, analysts are beginning to dial back their 2024/25 production ideas.
Corn is another biggie, with ratings falling another 9% last week to 30% good/excellent, also resulting in small (non-USDA) production reductions.
USDA is currently forecasting Argentina’s 2024/25 corn crop at 51mmt (2 billion bushels).
If realized, that would rank Argentina as the third-largest corn-producing state in the United States, behind Illinois (2.3bbu) and ahead of Nebraska (1.8bbu) in 2024.
Argentina’s production might be small, but its mighty as they are the third-largest corn exporter in the world, behind the United States and Brazil, accounting for one in every five bushels of corn exported in the world this year.
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