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HEADS UP:
The Weekly Top 5
5 | Trade War on Ice
The U.S. and Canada took their trade spat to the ice last night where three fights broke out in the first 9 seconds of play between the two neighboring countries in the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off hockey tournament in Montreal.
Team USA skated away with a win, by the way, defeating Canada 3-1.
Hockey isn’t the only place the U.S. and Canada have been put on ice as we continue to wait on further details after Trump's reciprocal tariffs were postponed until March 5th (at the earliest).
Same goes for Mexico, as 25% tariffs remain on the table for both bordering neighbors.
Plus, China...
It remains unclear if Trump will revert back to the original Phase One agreement from 2020, where China purchased less than 60% of what had been agreed upon.
Great visual from the Peterson Institute below, illustrating ag exports included in Phase One:
Corn sticks out like a sore thumb, at 1176% of the Phase One target as Chinese imports of U.S. corn went from nothing to something in a hurry.
Uncoincidentally, it was in China’s best interest to load up on cheap U.S. bushels as domestic corn prices soared all while U.S. futures dipped below $3.
There has been a clear correlation between the premium of Chinese corn prices over the U.S. and their import needs the past five years:
The only outlier was the 2023/24 marketing year, where China imported record amounts of cheap Brazilian corn after relaxing import guidelines in phytosanitary agreements with the country.
4 | MCGA
Today, the spread between DCE and CBOT futures sits at a multi-year low, leaving most to question if China engages at all.
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