The Weekender
I almost feel like I need to re-name No Bull or at least update the tag line to have something to do with Forest Gump’s box of chocolates, because you never know what you’re gonna get.
Last Sunday, it was a veg oil rabbit hole. Today, we take a head first dive into everyone’s favorite yellow stuff - corn!
King Corn
Corn continues to be the market with the ‘story’ (haven’t been able to say that in a while), with March up another 5c last week closing near $4.87 Friday.
March has rallied more than 30 cents since the Jan WASDE and now sits an impressive 85 cents off its late-August lows.
Nearby futures are within spitting distance of $5 for the first time since the fall of 2023:
Same thing, different view:
Funds have been piling on the longs and exiting existing short positions in recent months, pushing gross longs to a record in the week ending Feb 4 and the overall corn net long to its largest in nearly 3 years.
Incredible 12-month change in corn’s net position as funds have added a cumulative 3.3 billion bushels of length since March:
The Driver
Refresher: US + Brazil + Argentina + Ukraine account for >85% of world corn exports each year.
For that reason, production and, ultimately, stocks among the big four exporters are big market drivers:
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