The Weekender

November 10

In today’s update:

Top Five:

1 | Trade war, schmade war

2 | Missing the forest for the trees: China, the U.S., & Brazil

3 | A swing and a miss on Friday’s WASDE

4 | Carrying the load: bean oil keeping the market alive

5 | Unexpectedly unchanged: a corn conundrum

Funds Fun:

.: Corn: Long… and uninspiring

.: A painful divergence

Headline of the Week:

.: ADM reports more accounting errors, cancels earnings call

The weeks and months ahead…

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Panama Canal Jan 15-19 | Last call!

Two spots remain open for No Bull’s AgVenture to Panama in January.

Trip includes:

• Expert-led tours of the canal by both land and water as we accompany a vessel through the locks

• A day of fun in the sun aboard a private 54’ catamaran

• Five star luxury accommodations at the historic Sofitel Legend Casco Viejo

• Daily breakfast & lunch

• A lively dinner at Sabroso Panama & dinner with Panama Canal Authority representatives at Michelin-starred Caleta

Visit NoBullAgVentures.com for details or reply to this email to reserve your spot!

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This Week’s Top Five

1 | Trade war, schmade war

Potential (Trump/China) trade war, schmade war.

Here is the real issue:

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2 | Missing the forest for the trees

Now, I am not saying another trade war won’t have implications, but let’s not miss the forest for the trees.

China’s import growth has slowed all while Brazil’s production continues to expand.

What happens when production grows exponentially?

You unburden yourself of excess supplies by way of exports:

Same data, different view:

Collectively over the past five marketing years, Chinese imports of Brazilian soybeans have outpaced imports from the U.S. by a staggering 6 BILLION BUSHELS.

Let that sink in a bit (for reference, the US will produce a near-record 4.46 billion bushel crop this year).

I am not saying that the original trade war wasn’t impactful but anyone who blames the 2018/19 marketing year sh*t show on Trump alone needs to reconsider their ‘go-to’ sources of market intel.

Here’s why:

.: BOTH the U.S. AND Brazil had record crops at that time

.: The kicker is Brazil’s production ballooned 30% in the two years leading up to the trade war