Weekly Winners & Losers
Surprisingly, a handful of commodities bucked the trend and finished last week in the green. Not saying we didn’t press into new lows or at least test them but green is green and we will take any bounce we can get.
Before we get into the bounces, here’s a look at the biggest losers:
Poverty grass continues to live up to its name, grinding lower and now more than 30% off the late-May highs:
Paris wheat is right there with it, down 24% since late May in spite of a lackluster French crop and EU/Black Sea corn production concerns:
EU corn futures aren’t exactly setting the world on fire…
But new crop EU corn is up 5% the past 6 months vs US futures down 13%:
Speaking of down, the US dollar index which lost 1.7% last week, closing below 101 for the first time since July 2023:
Putting the dollar’s ‘drop’ in perspective with a 10-year chart:
Friday’s move into new lows came as Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the KC Fed’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, indicating long-awaited interest rate cuts would come in September.
Powell’s comments and the drop in the dollar helped boost energies, metals, and softs to close the week.
Soybean oil and canola also saw a nice bounce to end the week (+3.6% & 3.4% respectively) after the Canadian government stepped in to force striking railways back to work amid arbitration.
Nov beans squeezed out a 1.7% gain (16c) on the week - their first higher weekly close in four weeks:
SX comparison over the years:
Backing up further - nearby futures from 1980 through today:
With averages by decade:
Taking that same historical bean chart and adding China bean imports… no coincidence here:
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