The Weekender
November 16 | Deciphering USDA's Data Dump
It was another wild week of market moves capped by a data dump that left plenty to be desired. Today we’re breaking down USDA’s smaller-than-expected cut to corn yield, the modest trim to soybeans, and what those numbers actually mean for January’s final yields.
In this update, we start with last week’s price action before walking through the key takeaways from USDA’s November catch-up releases — reports that finally provided clarity on the size of the 2025 U.S. crop and confirmed what business was (and wasn’t) getting done during the six-week shutdown.
Last week delivered fresh highs for the move in both corn and soybeans — right up until Friday’s ‘not-low-enough’ yield cuts caused a sharp post-report selloff.
January beans briefly traded above $11.50 on Thursday — and again Friday morning ahead of the 11am WASDE — marking the first move above that level since June 2024.
The fun was short-lived, though, as a relatively disappointing WASDE triggered a 30-cent reversal, with Jan settling near $11.24, still 7 cents higher on the week.
Likewise, it was a big week for corn, with a brief technical breakout that pushed futures above $4.40 for the first time in five months before the WASDE-inspired selloff erased the Tuesday–Thursday gains.
Even so, corn still finished the week up 3 cents, settling near $4.30.
Much to the corn market’s dismay, NASS printed a smaller-than-expected yield reduction in Friday’s November report.
At 186.0 bpa, national yield was trimmed just 0.7 bpa — a full 2 bpa above the average trade guess — effectively dashing the market’s hopes for a large reduction.
Several states posted yield increases — mostly concentrated in the Plains — while Illinois (+2) and Indiana (+1) were the only major states east of the Mississippi to see gains.
