The Shock
Friday was a big day for U.S. agriculture.
First, USDA released one of their largest data dumps of the year with the January WASDE, final crop production, Dec 1 Stocks, and initial wheat seedings.
The biggest surprise was US 2024 yield for both corn and beans, falling well-below pre-report estimates and marking two of the largest Nov to Jan drops on record.
Next ~just ahead of the market close~ the Department of the Treasury released long-awaited 45Z guidance, which DID include a caveat all of agriculture has been waiting on for months: the EXCLUSION of imported used cooking oil as a qualifying feedstock under 45Z.
What’s that mean?
Biomass-based diesels made from imported used cooking oil no longer qualify for tax credits under 45Z, theoretically clearing the way for more soybean oil demand.
Full recap below!
January Report Recap
Corn
US corn yield was cut an incredible 3.8 bpa to 179.3. That is a full 2bpa below the lowest pre-report estimate and 3.4 bpa below the average pre-report guess.
Even with Friday’s big cut, 2024 yield is still a record high at 179.3, beating 2023 by 2bpa.
Several states saw records, including Illinois at 217 (-1 from Nov) and Iowa at 211 (-2 from Nov).
An incredible 14 of the top 20 producing states saw yield reductions from November.
Looks like USDA’s data finally caught up with August’s dry weather and an abnormally dry 2024 crop:
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