The Wednesday HOT TAKE

April 24

What’ HOT

HOT Topic

There is no hotter topic at the moment than Sustainable Aviation Fuel and rightfully so.

Today, U.S. sustainable aviation fuel production is hardly a fraction of its total jet fuel needs:

But, that is set to change in rapid fashion as we aim to hit the Biden Administration’s aggressive green goals in the coming years:

Agriculture is set to play a key role in making our net-zero dreams a reality, but there are plenty of hurdles ahead.

Undoubtedly the largest hurdle is the carbon intensity of crop-based biofuels, which serves as a barrier to entry for US corn ethanol’s use as a feedstock in sustainable aviation fuel production.

This has been thrust into the limelight in recent months as the world’s first ethanol-to-jet sustainable aviation fuel plant opened in Georgia this year.

LanzaJet is a pioneer in the field… who is also making US farmers in the field angry by importing Brazilian sugarcane ethanol to use as a feedstock in SAF production…

Remember - don’t hate the player, hate the game.

HOT OFF THE PRESS!!

I am beyond excited to announced that Meg Whitty of LanzaJet and Justin Kirchoff, CEO of Summit Agricultural Group (yes, the pipeline) will both be on stage at Summit 24 this August.

Yep - two of the most relevant (and also controversial) companies in ag and renewables will be on the stage with me this August!

Registration begins May 1.

Learn more at NoBullSummit.com.

HOT Commodity

The wheat market has been on a bit of a hot streak in recent days as weather and geopolitics have markets heating up.

July winter wheat futures have been up 5 days in a row, notching their longest winning streak since January.

Both Chicago and KC futures are up more than 60 cents off of last week’s lows for gains of 11%.

If you are a wheat guy (especially in SRW areas where the crop is exceptional) here is your sign!

Some of you don’t have an exceptional crop, however, like my friend Steve in Garden City, Kansas.

His (dying) hard red wheat is one reason the KC market is on edge…

…as major hard red wheat producing areas are experiencing extreme dryness:

Plus - there isn’t much relief in the forecast for the next 10 days:

Wheat conditions fell this past week, driven by large drops in good/excellent in both Kansas and Oklahoma:

Although it stinks for Steve and the rest of central/western Kansas, the REAL market-driver is Russia though, who has also been dealing with a dry pattern of their own in major production areas.

Russia is one of the world’s largest producers of wheat and has been the largest single-country exporter since 2018, accounting for one in every four bushels shipped today.