The Wednesday HOT TAKE
December 10 | Demand vs. Supply: The Divergence Defining Corn and Soybeans
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In this week’s HOT TAKE, we are digging into the widening split between corn’s demand-driven momentum and soybeans’ increasingly burdensome supply as Brazil gears up for another record crop.
Plus, I will hit on the new $12B “bridge” package and why aid remains one of the most market-distorting tools in D.C.’s arsenal.
What’s HOT
Corn Exports
USDA raised its 2025/26 corn export projection another 125 mbu in Tuesday’s December WASDE to a record 3.2 bbu (81.3 MMT), citing record early-season inspections.
U.S. corn exports hit a historic 2.83 bbu (72.6 MMT) in 2024/25 and are off to another record start in 2025/26, as the U.S. captures a larger share of global trade.
Low prices cure low prices in the form of new demand, and a record U.S. crop has amplified that effect — helping the U.S. regain global market share for the second straight year while competitors struggle.
Brazil’s strong domestic pull, Ukraine’s drought-hit crop, and slow shipments opened the door in 2024/25, and similar constraints abroad are supporting U.S. business again this year.
Meanwhile, China’s Q1 absence from the U.S. soybean market left early-season capacity in the PNW — capacity that corn has been more than willing to fill.
Yes, the U.S. is exporting more corn — but so is the rest of the world.
Global corn exports have surged over the past two decades, driven first by the mid-2000s ethanol boom — which redirected more U.S. corn into fuel — and then by rising incomes and stronger feed demand across emerging markets.
World trade jumped from roughly 70 MMT (~2.75 bbu) in the late 1990s to nearly 100 MMT (~3.9 bbu) by the late 2000s, while Brazil and others massively expanded production and export capacity to meet that growth.
