The Wednesday HOT TAKE

October 9

Spots are filling quickly for No Bull’s AgVenture to the Panama Canal - January 15-19, 2025!

Registration includes tours of the canal by both land and sea, five-star accommodations, most meals and a day of fun in the sun aboard a private 54’ catamaran.

Click HERE for details or visit NoBullAgVentures.com.

Registration closes November 15 or upon capacity (strictly limited to 20 participants to guarantee an exceptional experience).

Don’t delay in reserving your spot on this unforgettable trip!

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Ten HOT Nuggets

10 | Cause…

The past two weeks have been hot in heere!

…and super dry (aside from Helene’s remnants dumping rains on the eastern half of the U.S. the last week of September):

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9 | Effect

Hot and dry weather has caused lightning fast dry down in fields across the country, leaving farmers to forgo corn harvest and turn their attention to beans as single-digit moisture is wreaking havoc on yields.

This was evident in Monday’s crop progress report as bean progress hit 47%, up 21% on the week, while corn progress only advanced 9% to 30% complete.

Harvest progress by state:

Incredible weekly progress in the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains:

State-by-state progress vs average:

(Holy cow, Wisconsin!)

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8 | A fair share

Oilshare… what a roller coaster!

As the end of 2024 draws near (end of 40B which provides a $1/gallon subsidy ~in the form of a tax credit~ for every gallon of biodiesel and renewable diesel BLENDED into US fuel supplies), oilshare has somewhat been buoyed, as mandates are increasing at the same time we are disincentivizing fuel imports which should spell more demand for soybean oil.

The good news is - there’s underlying support for oil(share).

The bad news is (I wouldn’t necessarily call it ‘bad news’ but) - nearby meal tightness in the U.S. domestic market has kept meal futures alive much longer than ANYONE imagined, pressuring soybean oil, and therefore oilshare by default.

Backing it up a bit: