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The Wednesday HOT Take

The Wednesday HOT Take

May 21

May 21, 2025
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The Wednesday HOT Take
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Ten HOT Nuggets

10 | King Corn

After a 4-day losing streak that sank Dec corn to its lowest level so far in 2025, new crop has rallied 20 cents the first three days this week to close at a 4-week high near $4.55 this afternoon:

Dec 2026 closed at $4.68, within less than a dime of its recent high:


9 | We’re #1!

Since a booming US corn export program has been one of the only bright spots in markets recently, here’s a look at America’s export dominance:


8 | How low can you go?

The meal market continues to hover near contracts lows, amid pressure from new crop South American crush and strength in oil.

Today, July meal closed up 0.5%, marking its second consecutive day in the green - something meal has not seen in nearly six weeks!

Funds continue to add to their shorts, reaching an all-time record net short in recent weeks:


7 | Halfway There

Thankfully, soybean oil has found its footing, recouping ~half of its losses after Thursday and Friday’s late week meltdown.

The less-than-expected RVO rumors have quieted a bit and the market has turned its attention to the larger changes to 45Z included in the One Big, Beautiful Bill which is inching closer to the House floor vote.

Interesting to look at managed money’s growing length in bean oil in contrast with the record short in meal (as of May 13).

The gap between the two has never been wider and is closely correlated with oilshare, which reached 2.5 year highs last week:


6 | Records are meant to be broken

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