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The Wednesday HOT TAKE

The Wednesday HOT TAKE

July 17

Jul 17, 2024
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The Wednesday HOT TAKE
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Only two weeks left to secure your seat at this summer’s hottest event in ag!

WHY ATTEND?

  • The biggest names in ag, energy, renewables & transportation are all on one stage

  • Plus, the attendee list is a who’s who of the industries listed above

  • Massive changes are underway in biofuels that are impactful to everyone from big oil to airlines, grain companies, ethanol producers, investors and the farm

  • Summit 24 is about learning in the format No Bull readers have grown to love (no bull**** here!)

  • Plus - it is about making new friends. Networking is at the heart of the event. You are guaranteed to find both the Summit sessions & conversations over a drink insightful

  • Annnddd… it’s not just about sustainable aviation fuel & corn ethanol. Soybeans play a huge role (and maybe even bigger role) in our pursuit of net-zero by 2050

Click HERE for more information & to register.

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What’s HOT

Nearby oilshare continues to hold above 40% - a HOT streak that started when the calendar flipped to July and bean oil began a sharp rally while meal drifted toward new lows.

Prior to the boom in renewable diesel demand, oil held a one-third share of the value of a bushel of beans on average (meal = the other two-thirds).

When biomass-based diesel production began skyrocketing in 2021 and the years following, old norms went out the window as the industry fervently began crushing for oil amid explosive feedstock demand.

As a result, oilshare averaged 43% from 2021 to 2023 - a more-than 30% increase from historical norms and relatively close to where we sit today.

As the biofuels industry transitions from the 40B blenders tax credit to the 45Z producers credit in 2025, soybean oil is poised for an increase in feedstock demand (which likely reignites a rally in oilshare).

The shift from a tax credit on imported fuels to a credit for domestically produced biofuels is expected to stimulate biofuel production growth which equates to larger feedstock demand (good for bean oil… also good for feedstock imports like UCO, tallow, etc).

As the $1 tax credit for imported biodiesel and renewable diesel disappears, this has the market wondering if imports will disappear too.

Speaking of growing, biomass-based diesel imports continue to run HOT, reaching a record 863 million gallons in 2023.

Imports in the first four months of 2024 were a record 369 million gallons - which if annualized - leaves us on pace to surpass the 1 billion gallon mark before year’s end.

Buckle up because this ride is just getting started.

Sustainable aviation fuel is a HOT topic with EIA releasing data suggesting domestic production could increase by 1400% in 2024 if announced capacity additions come online - driving a 50% increase in overall U.S. biofuel production this year.

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