HOT Nuggets
Who’s #1?
For the past five years (2020-2024), soybeans have been the United States' top export to China. This streak followed a period where soybeans were consistently #2 (behind civilian aircraft) until the 2018 US-China trade war dropped them to #6. Their top ranking was restored as China resumed US soybean imports after Phase One was implemented.
For this reason, soybeans are viewed as a bargaining chip in US-China negotiations, though China has ample supplies alternative South American supplies available.
Then vs. now
Seven years have passed since the last trade war between the US and China.
The landscape has shifted dramatically since. To understand the potential impact of current tensions, let's rewind to the moment before the previous storm erupted.
World soybean production has increased 60mmt (2.2bbu) over the past seven years, no thanks to the U.S. who has seen a small decline in production since.
Nearly 80% of global gains are a result of rapid expansion in Brazil who has added more than 30 million acres since 2017 (that’s like ADDING the 2024 bean area of Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas).
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