The Wednesday HOT TAKE

Having fun yet?

I am rarely at a loss for words… but I am at a loss for words this evening.

Trying to keep up with Donald’s rapid-fire approach to ‘making America great again’ is exhausting.

At least my only obligation is writing about it.

I am not envious of those of you **attempting** to manage positions, run companies, organizations, a family farm or simply just trying to hold the fort together while it feels like we are going full blown scorched earth in D.C.

By the time you finish reading this update, there’s a good chance it is outdated.

Therefore, this one is short and sweet and more importantly - to the point.

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What we know

10% + 34% + another 50% = the U.S. is out of the market

Including standard duties and VAT, U.S. soybeans faced a near-60% tariff into China at this point, last night.

This morning, however, we woke up to an additional 50% (matching the Don’s attempted one-up on China yesterday), making total duties on U.S. soybeans into China a staggering 110%.

MBGA

It doesn’t matter if it is 34%, 110%, or 1000% - it won’t pencil and it leaves China dependent upon Brazil (and a few scraps of bushels from other nations) to fill the void.

NEWSFLASH, however:

China’s dependence/preference/whatever you want to call it isn’t new. In fact, Brazil has been China’s largest soybean supplier for more than a decade:

Granted, Trade War 1.0 amplified, accelerated, and solidified what had been a growing divergence, but the United States gave up its soy crown long ago as rapid expansion in Brazil left us (U.S.) out of the market.