What’s HOT
Running HOT
I think it is time Tripp gets his own X account because videos of him doing his thing on the farm are WAY more popular than any chart I have ever posted!
I am the luckiest mom in the world who will be riding in the buddy seat this weekend (per his request).
HOT Topic
With crop tour season in full swing and prospects for record yields in both corn and beans, we better hit on USDA’s August yields and where we likely go from here.
Four of the past five years national soybean final yield has been lower than the August WASDE print.
Backing up further, bean yield has declined six of the past seven years, averaging a 2.3% drop from August to final. Not suggesting anything, but a 2.3% drop from August’s 53.2 would put national yield near 52bpa.
2021 was the only outlier, with final yield 1.7bpa (3.4%) above August.
In corn, it is a more even split with three of the last five years seeing a decrease from August to final (19, 20 & 22). In 2021 & 2023 final yield ended up more than 2bpa higher than the August print.
Looking back even further the past decade in corn, final yields are very similar to August on average.
One major outlier was 2017 when ideal August weather added more than 4% to final yields from the Aug print. The only other big outlier was in 2020 where we saw final yields fall 5.7% from August.
I should mention that even though January’s report gives us “final” yield - USDA will not set the previous year’s yield in stone until the upcoming October WASDE.
HOT DAMN, we are crushing more beans!
…and producing more meal.
Within the next three years the US will be producing 11 million ADDITIONAL tons of soybean meal PER YEAR as added crushing capacity come online.
That is the equivalent of 105,000 additional rail cars, 6,900 barges, or 470,000 legally loaded semis worth of added meal production per year.
HOT Streak
Ethanol production has been on a hot streak lately, with four of the top 11 weeks of production on record occurring in the past ~month.
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