What’s HOT & What’s NOT
HOT Streak
Mexico has a record 18.7mmt (735mbu) of US corn on the books this year - 38% higher than their commitments at this point one year ago.
Not only are their current commitments a record for this time of the year, but they have already surpassed the old full-year purchase record (2021/22) by a whopping 60 million bushels and that is with more than four months remaining in the marketing year.
Mexico has long-been one of the United States’ largest corn customers, alongside Japan, Columbia and more recently, China.
This year, Mexico has 45% of all known 2023/24 corn commitments, followed by Japan at 19%, Columbia just shy of 11% and China with 5%.
One year ago, Mexico was at 39%, followed by China at 23% and Japan at 14%.
Mexico has been a lot of the reason US corn exports have rebounded from last year’s disastrous export program which was the lowest since the drought year in 2012/13.
One big driver: Mexico is our neighbor, sharing nearly 2,000 miles of border. For that reason, almost 2 in 3 bushels of corn the US exports to Mexico are sent via rail.
So, during the past few years of wildly challenging logistics (both on the Mississippi and low water in the Panama Canal, etc), Mexico has won by default/the US has won by default with this mainstay customer.
The fact the peso recently traded to its strongest level versus the dollar in nearly a decade doesn’t hurt anythig either as it gives Mexico more buying power:
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