The Wednesday HOT TAKE
November 27
Black Friday Edition
Santa’s little helper
Market analyst by day, Santa’s little helper by night.
Two years ago and friend and I founded AerialRug.com - a website that specializes in custom-printing aerial views of farms on rugs, blankets, puzzles & more.
That’s right - YOUR FARM ON A RUG, scaled for 1/64 farm toy play.
It is a gift the entire family can enjoy, plus we enjoy making them too!
If Santa is pinching pennies this Christmas, we are offering $50 off 5x7 rugs through Cyber Monday. Use code 50OFF.
The process is easy: You submit an address and screenshot with the area you would like printed. Our elves will find the perfect view and send you a proof.
Alternatively, send us a drone pic or the image of your choice.
Once approved, your items will be printed and arrive within two weeks. The last day for guaranteed Christmas delivery is Dec 6.
Penny Pinching
Speaking of pinching pennies - U.S. trading partners continue to get pinched amid strength in the dollar.
The U.S. Dollar Index traded above 108 late last week for the first time in more than two years, but has since retreated back below 106.
Market jitters ahead of a new era of Trump tariffs and this morning’s six-month-high inflation print has the greenback on the defensive today, down 1%.
The headwinds remain intact though as the dollar continues to out-perform the currencies of its closest trading partners:
Naughty or Nice?
Although he does not take office until January 20, Santa Donald is already putting the US’ top trading partners on his naughty list this holiday season.
Monday night, Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on products imported from Mexico and Canada, framing the proposal as a response to the ongoing fentanyl crisis in the United States.
In a separate post Trump indicated he would also “charge China an additional 10% tariff” on top of any existing tariffs in response to Fentanyl being sent to the U.S.
Just how impactful would such tariffs be?
The chart speaks for itself:
Two important things:
#1 | Contrary to the verbiage The Don uses on repeat, Mexico/Canada/China do not PAY tariffs. The US consumer PAYS the tariff in the end as increased import costs are ultimately passed down.
Mexican/Canadian/Chinese exporting companies somewhat pay a price in what is likely lost business/decreased revenues as they are forced to reduce the price of their goods or lose demand.
#2 | US trading partners’ currencies weaken/work their way lower vs. the US dollar in an attempt to offset the added tariff.
Example: the Mexican peso hit a 2.5-year low vs the dollar yesterday after Trump’s intentions were made public.
Shopping Spree
Mexico continues its US corn shopping spree with a record 12.9mmt (510mbu) in cumulative commitments for the current marketing year.
Current commitments are 10% larger than last year’s record and an incredible 70% ahead of average.
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