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Brazil’s Rapid Acreage Expansion
Meanwhile in Brazil, the soy-producing behemoth of the world will soon be gearing up for their 18th consecutive increase in soybean area with the 2024/25 crop.
USDA’s current estimate of 47.3 million hectares (117 million acres) is up 3.3% from the year prior and a whopping 40% larger than the area harvested just 10 years ago.
In fact, Brazil’s soybean area has expanded an average of 5% annually for more than 30 years now.
5%!!! Annually!!
So, just what does an annual expansion rate of 5% look like?
Here is a look at the past three decades of expansion with a satellite view of the municipality of Sorriso in central Mato Grosso - the state responsible for 30% of Brazil’s soybean production each year:
Now, just to compare - let’s take a look at the heart of American soybean production in Central Illinois.
The timelapse below is over Sangamon County, Illinois ~just south of the state capital Springfield~ known as the highest soybean-yielding county in the country.
In fact, Sangamon is the only county to ever achieve a county-wide average yield over 80bpa in history (80.4bpa in 2018).
Not seeing much change aside from crop rotation and the change in seasons? That is because the United States has seen very little area change in recent decades.
In fact, since 2015/16 when Brazil’s soy area first exceeded the United States, US area has increased marginally while Brazilian area has grown more than 40%.
Back up two decades (below) and Brazil’s area has more than doubled while US area has increased less than 15%.
Soy Oil Demand
May NOPA crush was released on Monday at 183.6 million bushels - breaking May 2023’s monthly record by 5.7mbu and jumping more than 14mbu from April and its record downtimes.
While May makes the 8th monthly record for the current marketing year, the real notable number comes from oil stocks.
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