The Wednesday HOT TAKE

September 11

Ten HOT Nuggets

1 | Weather the storm

Francine is making landfall in southern Louisiana this evening as a Category 2 hurricane.

Since my last update Sunday evening, Francine made a major shift to the east where it has impacted operations at Gulf exporting facilities.

Terminals closed ahead of the storm though and will be working to get back to loading as soon as possible in the coming days. I am far from a weatherman but this storm is substantially weaker than Ida, which wreaked havoc on the Gulf three years ago.

In the past 36 hours, bids at the Gulf have tanked and barge freight has shot higher as the system braced for impact.

Potentially of greater impact are the inches of rain that will be dumped on mature beans across the Delta.

Mississippi looks to take the brunt of the moisture ~which is welcomed~ but with nearly 70% of the crop left standing in the field and 53% mature as of the 8th… damage likely becomes an issue in some spots.

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2 | How low can you go?

Unfortunately, the remnants of Francine aren’t doing a thing for the Mississippi.

Not only is the system too far east but Francine won’t make it far enough north to make a difference.

No, I am not kidding.

See, nothing:

Areas surrounding the Lower Mississippi are impacted with moderate, severe and now extreme drought:

Big changes in barely one month’s time:

I suppose this is where I make a comment about incredibly poor finishing weather (in addition to a far from ideal situation for the inland waterways system)…

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3 | When subtraction adds up

Reduced drafts (meaning barges must be light-loaded otherwise they risk running aground in low water conditions) are the one instance where subtraction adds up… and it is not a good thing.

Low water conditions on the Lower Mississippi are limiting loading capacities to 10’ drafts throughout the system, reducing each barge’s carrying capacity by nearly one-fourth: