TEN HOT NUGGETS
In this week’s HOT TAKE:
10 | Unburdened by what has been
9 | Stocks vs. Commodities & Red vs. Blue
8 | Making the US dollar great again
7 | The REAL winner (BRL)
6 | A landslide in other currencies
5 | Victorious veg oils
4 | Grease fire | Used cooking oil imports soar to a new record high
3 |The UCO Leaderboard | Palm, anyone?
2 | Breaking big fat records
1 | One important role
10 | Unburdened
Well America, we are officially unburdened and markets have reacted accordingly.
It has been an interesting last 24 hours to say the least.
Regardless, it is over and doesn’t appear to be a close race which hopefully spares some of the additional chaos we were all fearing heading into this election.
What a wild road the past six months have been:
9 | Stocks vs. Commodities & Red vs. Blue
Stocks vs. commodities by administration:
Same thing, different view:
8 | Making the US dollar great again
Aside from the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all surging to new all-time highs on Trump’s win, one of the largest post-election market moves was in the dollar.
The US dollar index rallied above 105 for the first time since early July for its largest one-day move since 2020 as “Trump Trade” is now back in the mix.
Trump’s pledges for stronger restrictions on imports have left the currencies of major U.S. trading partners adjusting lower to maintain competitive pricing, attempting to offset potential tariffs hikes.
Looking closer (15 min chart) at pre- and post-election trading:
Historical US dollar index by Administration:
7 | The REAL winner
Donald Trump may have won by a wide margin but earlier this morning the 2024 election’s biggest winner was the Brazilian farmer as the real plummeted more than 4% to .016141 - a new all-time low versus the dollar.
Early this morning when Jan beans were down nearly 20 cents, the weakness in the real actually meant Jan futures were 25 cents higher on the day in BRL equivalent.
Since then however, the BRL has rallied back, closing up more than 1% on the day.
15 minute chart:
Year-to-date, nearby soybean futures are down 23% in dollars while only seeing a 10% loss in real-equivalent as the BRL has lost 15% against the dollar since January.
6 | A landslide
As mentioned in 8, Trump’s landslide resulted in another type of slide as U.S. trading partners’ currencies took a nose dive as his win became apparent last night.
Chinese yuan (15 min chart):
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