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The Wednesday HOT TAKE

The Wednesday HOT TAKE

October 16

Oct 16, 2024
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The Wednesday HOT TAKE
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Only a few spots remain. Don’t delay in reserving your place on this incredible trip! Visit NoBullAgVentures.com for details or reply to this message.


TEN HOT NUGGETS

10 | UCO Leaderboard

Lovely to see that we now have two countries that produce >80% of the world’s palm oil now in the United States’ used cooking oil imports top five…

Through August, the U.S. has imported 3.2 billion pounds of UCO - more than in all of 2023. Imports from China continue to dominate at a 57% share.


9 | A whopper

This morning’s corn export flash to Mexico was a whopper at 1.623mmt - 1.04mmt (41mbu) in the current marketing year and 579tmt (23mbu) of new crop.

Additionally, there was 13mbu of current year corn and 6.5mbu of beans to unknown.

Mexico’s big buy won’t quite make the Top 10 largest corn sales on record, it gets close:

While it is exciting to see such a large sale… this is routine rail business with Mexico. Sales of this size are not uncommon during the last few months of the year (note the dates/sales highlighted above).

Just like today’s flash - 2023 had a whopper that barely missed the Top 10 cut as well:

100% routine and not exciting, unfortunately:

10/16/2024: 1.62mmt (64mbu)
09/25/2023: 1.66mmt (65mbu)
11/16/2022: 1.87mmt (74mbu)
12/08/2021: 1.84mmt (72mbu)


8 | Back in business

We’re back, baby!

We have had a flurry of corn export sales flashes to ‘unknown’ recently, much of which is thought to be Spain.

This comes as Brazilian premiums continue to climb and a combination of drought in Ukraine plus an uptick in strikes on Black Sea vessels have sent buyers to the U.S. for their import needs.

U.S. corn also remains competitive into long-time customer Japan:


7 | Salty spreads

The bean market has been inflicting max pain the past few days…

Not necessarily because of Nov futures falling below $10 for the first time since mid-September but because of the Nov-Jan spread which has rallied ~6 cents in a matter of days, narrowing the carry from Nov to Jan to its narrowest since June.

How is this possible as we are harvesting a record US crop?

For starters, it has been a fast harvest where many bushels went straight to the bin & not to the elevator (farmers concentrating on getting beans done as fast as possible due to very low moisture, leaving corn stand for later).

Add in the fact futures have collapsed to the tune of 80 cents the past couple weeks and the farmer is not a motivated seller.

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