The Tuesday HOT TAKE

November 21

Thanksgiving/Black Friday Edition

What’s HOT

OJ! OJ! OJ!

From my friend Henry Walsh’s

GSX Newsletter

on Substack:

The OJ market has been on fire, whilst grains continue to sell off. The orange juice market has been caught in a classic supply side squeeze, which has then driven CTA’s into the market who keep buying, which drives away natural sellers and so it continues. At some point the CTA’s are going to own the whole Florida crop if this keeps going. The unwind is going to be spectacular!

Well we did a little unwinding today, Henry.

Jan orange juice futures closed down the 10-cent limit at 415.80 - only after making a new all-time high at 428.80 of course!

HOT Topic

When talking about Brazil, we put a lot of focus on Mato Grosso and for good reason.

Mato Grosso is Brazil’s largest crop-producing state, responsible for more than one-quarter of its soybean production and 50% of Safrinha corn production each year.

Covering more area than the states of Iowa, Missouri and Illinois combined, Mato Grosso is expected to produce more than 1.5 billion bushels of soybeans in 2023/24 - more than the top 3 U.S. states combined (IL+IA+MN).

After several weeks lagging behind average and last year, Mato Grosso’s soybean plant progress hit 96% on Friday.

There is still ample talk of replanting due to early stress or reduced crop potential but need I remind you we have put 40…50… 60+ cents back into the market for that very reason.

(Honestly, this chart isn’t as bad as I imagined it would be)