Holy moly this child is a HOT MESS!
Genevieve: Look Mommy! An alligator!!
What’s HOT
Last week’s corn export sales were hot at 72.8 million bushels - nearly double sales from the week prior and seven times sales the week before that.
Unfortunately this might be a sizzle followed by a fizzle as a whopper one-off flash to Mexico bolstered weekly numbers and cumulative sales of 699 million bushels lag the seasonal pace needed by 260 million.
Plus, inspections are just as sad but I won’t even bore you with a chart.
I feel like I keep talking about this but it is important:
Where ya at, China?
Mexico’s 340 million bushels of US corn commitments represent HALF of what we have sold + shipped thus far in 2022/23.
Hold that thought…
What’s NOT
What goes up must come down and that is just what weekly soybean export sales did. After a whopper 108.8 million bushels the week prior, sales for the week ending Nov 17 were an underwhelming 25.4 million bushels.
Although cumulative sales remain on pace to hit USDA’s current full-year estimate, China’s Covid struggles and Brazil’s prospects for a bin-buster will make the next month of sales and shipments important.
Inspections have already started their seasonal decline which will only be compromised further as Brazil’s harvest is set to begin in little over a month.
And the last NOT SO HOT tidbit is this… the experimental forecast for the Mississippi river at St. Louis.
The St. Louis area does its heavy-lifting (filling the Gulf export channel) during the winter months.
Forecasts call for a steady fall back into the negatives, with major operational challenges on the way within the next week.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to No Bull to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.