February 8 WASDE
Corn
There was only one small change to the US balance sheet - a 10-million-bushel reduction in food, seed & industrial demand (in this case, USDA noted it was a reduction in corn used for glucose/dextrose which means as a sweetener, preservatives, pharmaceutical and industrial applications, etc).
Ending stocks increased 10mbu as a result to 2.172 billion… nice and burdensome.
I went ahead and left the big mystery circle on there to represent where we likely see initial estimates for 2024/25 ending stocks.
USDA’s annual Outlook Forum will be underway this time next week and doubtful it gives us little to feed the bull.
Since we are already depressed - might as well hit on world export prices while we are at it:
FAS reports Brazilian corn is near $5.25/bu today, while Argy is $5.10, the US Gulf is $5.00 and Ukraine continues to hold its spot at the low end, undercutting the rest of the world by a mile at $4.40.
While it is fantastic that US corn has a small competitive advantage over Brazil (on a FOB basis), remember that Brazilian corn exports do not ramp up (and in most cases, get price-competitive) until Safrinha harvest gets underway in June.
US prices were down $14/tonne (36c/bu) from Jan to Feb, pressured by large domestic stocks and ample world supplies.
Brazil saw its 2nd consecutive monthly reduction in new crop corn production (down 3mmt at 124mmt) - driven by a decrease in area. Exports were reduced as well - for both old crop and new.
All is well with the world as the U.S. regains its title of largest corn exporter in the world in the 2023/24 marketing year.
Also - Ukrainian exports increased 2mmt to 23mmt - interesting to note the Ag Attaché is using a 29.2mmt (that’s ~250mbu difference).
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