Post-Report HOT TAKE

September 12

Click HERE for a printable recap.

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Corn

Old Crop

After 5 consecutive months of 2022/23 full-year corn export estimate reductions, we finally found a bottom as USDA raised their old crop estimate 40 million bushels to 1.665 billion today.

The move was justified as census exports (although low) implied we exceeded last month’s estimate. We will learn the FINAL 2022/23 export number in USDA’s October WASDE.

Offsetting a portion of the uptick in export demand was a 30-million-bushel reduction in ethanol use.

All-in-all, old crop carryout decreased 5 million bushels to 1.452 billion bushels, maintaining a 10.6% stocks-use-ratio while USDA’s farm price estimate fell 5 cents to $6.55.

New Crop

For starters - where’s the production data come from? Here are a few key terms:

• Operator reported survey = farmer surveys

• Field survey = USDA boots on the ground

• Objective Yield = Surveys consist of a sample of fields in which counts and measurements are made of plants in random plots laid out in each field

Surprise!

2023 corn production of 15.134 billion bushels was marginally higher than even the highest pre-report estimate and only the 3rd time in history we have produced a 15-billion-bushel crop.

If realized, the 2023 crop will be the 2nd largest in history - only falling behind 2016’s 15.148 billion.

The surprise was in the acres, up 800,000 in both planted and harvested from prior estimates.

I will get into this more on Thursday but the largest state-by-state changes were (in states that have been roasting lately):

NE +430k, KS +230, MN +200k, MO +190, ND +140, OH +100k, SD +90k

The biggest losers: IL and IA both down 300k a piece

Thank you, FSA.

Yield was reduced 1.3 bpa to 173.8 for its 3rd monthly decline in a row amid notably low crop conditions.

Even with a 1.3 bushel drop in yield, the US 2023 crop increased 23 million bushels at 15.134 billion thanks to the 800,000 acre increase in area.