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Post-Report HOT TAKE

Post-Report HOT TAKE

March 28

Mar 28, 2024
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No Bull
Post-Report HOT TAKE
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Acres

Timing is everything:

Low(er) prices are trying to cure low(er) prices in the form of less acres:

Red, red everywhere:

All of corn’s red on the board resulted in a lot of red on the map with US acres down 4.9% YOY at 90.0 million. The largest declines were seen in southern states, Missouri and Minnesota:

At 90.0 million, corn acres were nearly 2 million acres less than the average pre-report estimate and at the very bottom of pre-report estimates:

Bean acres were in line with expectations at 86.5:

All major bean states saw a year-on-year increase in area with the exception of Kansas:

Actual vs estimates vs history:

The downside surprise in corn acres left the corn+bean acreage pool much smaller year-on-year and 2 million acres below the average trade estimate:

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