No Bull, November 25
Holiday Wishlist 2022
Before I get into the Wishlist, I need to correct a mistake in the Tuesday HOT TAKE (I had both my numbers and the chart all jumbled):
Total Chinese corn commitments are down more than 330 million bushels year-on-year (as of the week ending 11/10). Unshipped commitments are 70 million bushels compared with 430 million bushels one year ago. Ooof.
What a wild little world-s&d-rockin’ ride it has been.
China went from zero to sixty, creating an added billion bushels of corn demand in what seemed like the blink of an eye back in ‘20.
Alright - on to the good stuff!
Rug Farming
I cannot even begin to tell you how excited I am about the first item(s) on this year’s list!
After watching Tripp ‘farm’ on carpet, blankets, and textured bathroom rugs for years, I am finally able to give him some real fields to add to his floor operation:
These unique rugs are a smooth woven texture, similar to an indoor/outdoor rug (you can’t print a high-quality image on a fluffy carpeted rug).
Each rug features a vibrant landscape, with two sizes to choose from (3x5 & 5x7 ft).
Select anything from a farm in one of the ‘I’ states to a feedlot in Kansas or Utah gold mine.
One of my favorites is the rock quarry below:
Aerial rug doesn’t stop with farms and landscapes meant for play either, offering a variety of college football stadiums and amazing bird’s eye views of notable places around the globe.
Check it out HERE.
Santa’s Workshop
You are going to need some new toys for your new rug and I know just the place!
If you have been a follower of mine at all the past few years, you are probably familiar with Outback Toys - they have been my farm toy go-to for a while now.
Tripp LIVES for the fall day Outback’s annual Christmas Catalog arrives in the mail. You can checkout their online version HERE.
To say they have a big selection is the understatement of the year. From toys to apparel to kitchen utensils and tractor wrapping paper - they have it all.
Here are a couple of my favorites:
Everyone’s (least) favorite thing (to step on bare-footed) now comes in a John Deere, complete with a trailer!
Christmas Red & John Deere Green
Now, on to something for the grownup John Deere fan on your holiday shopping list.
If you read No Bull at all, you are probably familiar with Zomer Company - auctioneers of prized farmland in pricey northwest Iowa.
Today I have a different type of auction to bring to your attention - one painted in John Deere Green.
This Saturday, November 26, the Lincoln County Fairgrounds in Lennox, South Dakota will host a one-of-a-kind John Deere collector tractor auction.
Dozens of rare and unique tractors will be up for sale covering three decades of machines including the last production John Deere 4255.
Details and auction catalog can be found HERE.
Be sure to watch for a special Ask the Experts in early December, where I sit down with Mark Zomer to ask the burning question WHY anyone would feel the need to pay $25,000, $27,000, and now $30,000 for a piece of Iowa dirt!
No doubt this green paint will fetch a pretty penny on Saturday.
Speaking of pretty pennies, Deere & Co. reported a 75% jump in quarterly profit earlier this week, as supply chain constraints limited supplies of its tractors, combines, and sprayers bolstering pricing power and more than offsetting impacts of higher raw material costs. Profit on such equipment surged 124% while sales rose 59%, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal.
Shares of Deere surged on Wednesday, making a new all-time high of $448.40 before closing up more than 5% on the day at $437.52.
Deere’s call revealed a few other notables one of which is the fact order books are full through the third quarter of next year for combines and other farm equipment. Read more HERE.
Before I reveal this next notable - check out the lineup below on CNBC’s Market Movers:
John Deere is with the likes of tech giants and may stay that way as Deere says they see “total autonomy” for US corn and soybean farming by 2030. Great reporting by Bloomberg’s Michael Hirtzer HERE.
Out with the reindeer, in with the EV
Santa might opt to give the boys a break this year and use his new electric Sierra Denali instead.
In late October, GMC released details of its first-ever Sierra EV, complete with an eye-watering starting MSRP of $107,000.
I mean it’s pretty but dang!
The truck features a 400-mile range with a full charge, boasting a 100-mile range with a DC fast 10 minute charge.
If you are worried about it being weaker than your manly diesel - don’t be.
The Sierra EV has an estimated 754 HP and 785 lb-ft of torque in max power mode, which seems like more than enough to help Santa get all those packages delivered.
The truck also offers a 16.8“ touch-screen and super cruise driver-assistance technology where you can experience hands-free driving on more than 400,000 miles of compatible roadways.
The Sierra Denali EV will be available in Spring 2024 and you can join the waitlist if you are so inclined HERE.
Painting without the pain
If you have a toddler - you know what I mean.
Finding mess-free activities that keep them engaged can be a challenge, but this next gift idea offers a solution.
The Color Me books are fantastic because you only need water for disaster-free fun. Genevieve is a HUGE fan. I have learned that it is imperative you only give her ~2 tablespoons of water to “paint” with though.
Walmart has these fun little books: Color Me Farm & Color Me Trucks
Color Me Farm is only $4.99 at Walmart which I would consider a bargain!
Speaking of Walmart, shares have been on the rise in recent weeks as the world’s largest retailer raised its financial outlook for the year after reporting same-store sales rose 8.2% in the third quarter.
Soon after, retailer Target cut its forecast for the fourth quarter, reporting sales rose a mere 2.7% in the previous quarter.
CNBC has a really interesting article that compares and contrasts the two mega-retailers, explaining the divergence in earnings results:
Walmart and Target’s quarterly results lay bare the retailers’ stark differences
Groceries account for 56% of Walmart’s annual revenue vs Target’s 20%
Walmart is the largest grocer by revenue in the USA
Walmart’s “everyday low prices” mantra is attracting more higher-income shoppers as inflation remains high
For the past two quarters 75% of its market share gains in grocery sales have been from households earning more than $100,000 per year
Walmart has more than 4,700 locations vs Target’s 1,900
This is not really related but I read this last week and my mind was blown:
A Southern Hemisphere Stocking Stuffer
This next wishlist item takes us south… really far south to Brazil.
For R$450,000,000 ($83.6 million) you can buy yourself ~or someone you REALLY love~ 34,000 hectares (84,000 acres) in Mato Grosso, Brazil.
The farm, located in central Mato Grosso, boasts a total planted area of 20,950 ha (almost 52,000 acres).
This acreage includes 13,500 ha (more than 33,000 acres) of first crop soybeans, followed by double crop corn and cotton.
The farm currently features 7,200 tonnes (265,000 bushels) of bin space with another 150,000 tonnes (5.5 million bushels) under construction.
While $83.6 million may seem a little steep, divide that across the planted area and it works out to $1,700 an acre. Not too shabby considering Iowa is now the founding member of the $30,000/acre club.
The entire listing can be found HERE.
This year’s Wishlist is dedicated to friend and former customer Red Moore who lost his life in an accident earlier this week. Red was one-of-a-kind and one of those guys who was just a pleasure to know.
Even if it isn’t your beer of choice, crack open a Bud Light in memory of my friend Red this weekend.
That is all for today!
For paid subscribers, I will be out until Tuesday and will return with the normal HOT TAKE then.
Enjoy the remainder of the Thanksgiving holiday.
Thanks!
