No Bull, January 5
Out with the old, in with the new
On this first Thursday of 2023, it’s out with the old and in with the new.
New Technology
Smartphones aren’t new. In fact, it is estimated that nearly 7 billion people own a smartphone - more than 86% of the population.
(91.5% of people on this planet own a mobile phone, so Mr. Flip Phone, you are in a dwindling minority).
It was only seven years ago when half of the world’s population did not own a smartphone but affordability, accessibility, and ever-improving features have made not having a smartphone a thing of the past.
Today, our mobile phones are our alarm, our computer, and our own little photography studio (an industry that has been obliterated by the smartphone’s rise to fame).
Take a trip down memory lane with the video clip below. I think it is amazing how short-lived the digital camera’s time really was and it is even more amazing the power of the cameras we carry around in our pockets nonchalantly today.
Christmas Day I was looking through some of my mom’s old photo albums (she was one of those who took a million pictures at every event).
Look at my face!
I am the only one looking at the camera - with a smile that only a mother could love, nonetheless. That wouldn’t happen today since photos are instantaneous and would result in an immediate redo!
Out with the old crop, in with the new crop
Just over three-quarters (78%) of Ukraine’s 2022 corn had been harvested at year-end - progress substantially behind even last year’s slow pace (weather delays).
Corn left standing in the field will need to be harvested this spring before planting can begin in April, bringing both yield and quality into question while also raising concerns about Ukraine’s ability to put 2023 crop in the ground.
The Ministry of Ag reports average yields at 6.4 tonnes/ha - a.k.a. just shy of 103 bushels per acre in 2022.
In USDA’s most recent update, Ukrainian corn production was reduced another 14% to 27mmt, which is down markedly from 2021’s 42.1mmt production and is coincidentally the same amount of bushels Ukraine exported in total last year.
Current marketing year exports were increased in the December WASDE to 17.5mmt citing the success of the grain corridor, but remain 35% less than the 27mmt exported in 2021/22.
Out with the old job
Thousands of Americans have said out with this old job and failed to replace it with a new one.
In the US there are still more than 1.7 job openings per unemployed person - a number substantially higher than the pre-Covid era.
The US continues to chart its own course compared with its peers:
Released just this morning, last week’s weekly jobless claims fell to a three-month low and layoffs were down 43% in December. The labor market’s stubborn tightness is viewed as something that could force the Fed to continue to hike rates in 2023 (hence the US dollar’s strong performance and stocks’ wipeouts today).
Here is a mind-boggling statistic:
For every ten people hired in the US, seven others quit. The quits-to-hires ratio sits at 0.7 - a record high.
One more report focusing on old crop before our eyes turn to new
USDA will set the 2022 crop in stone one week from today as the January Crop Production report is released at 11am central on the 12th.
January will be USDA’s last adjustment to 2022 production while domestic demand will continue to be updated monthly until we reach the end of the marketing year.
Fun Fact: The October WASDE is the final print for old crop and often features tweaks and adjustments to both supply and demand.
I hate to focus on yield because there is SO much more to the market than yield, but yield is always a major focal point:
USDA will update world supply and demand as well next week in addition to releasing December 1 grain stocks and winter wheat seedings. It is a big report day to say the least.
Given that it falls on a Thursday, I will be combining the post-report recap (for paid subscribers) and No Bull into one update next week.
Out with the old records
You probably get tired of hearing me talk about farmland but I am going to keep talking about farmland until the market cools off.
As mentioned in last week’s Top 10 in 2022, a record amount of acres were auctioned last year - at record prices to boot!
My friend Jim @theLandTalker Rothermich released his December newsletter earlier this week and the numbers are staggering.
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