No Bull | Highs and Lows

May 4

Mark your calendars for No Bull’s inaugural event, Summit 23, this August in St. Louis!

Join producers, industry leaders, innovators and entrepreneurs from across the US and internationally, sharing knowledge and insight into the next generation in agriculture.

I am bringing No Bull’s bold and out-of-the-box approach to the mundane world of meetings, creating an immersive, dynamic experience providing a revolutionary opportunity for producers and industry professionals to come together to learn, grow, and connect.

Registration includes Welcome Reception on August 2 in addition to the Summit on August 3. The event concludes that evening with an unforgettable all-inclusive baseball experience as attendees enjoy a St. Louis Cardinals game from atop a private rooftop deck.

Full agenda and detailed list of speakers and panelists will be released soon. Earlybird pricing is available during the month of May. Visit NoBullSummit.com to register.

Sponsorship opportunities are still available. Click HERE additional for information.

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Highs and Lows

‘Tis the season to be on the lookout for new contract highs as we always have to try and kill the crop at least once every growing season, right?

As you know, picking a top always proves rather difficult to accomplish, especially in recent years where a number of other factors have impacted markets, having little to do with US growing conditions.

Take 2020 for instance, where we did not see calendar-year highs until the tail end of the year as Covid obliterated markets into the summer months before we began to rally and never looked back.

Or 2022, where Russia’s invasion of Ukraine skewed all feedgrain markets there for a bit.

And then there’s early May 2021, where corn found support as Brazil’s Safrinha crop was impacted by drought.

Newsflash - we have 3 weather markets a year now:

1. US growing season (Jun-Jul)

2. South American growing season (Dec-Jan)

3. Brazil’s Safrinha growing season (~May)

—> We are about to the point #3 can be scratched from the watchlist in 2023 as Brazil has had idea growing conditions and clearly the market has taken note.

June is winning by a mile as far as the highest frequency of new crop contract highs go, but May is worth noting for corn as we have seen December make its highs there 3 of the last 5 years.

Unfortunately for Dec 23 corn, we turned the calendar to 2023 and its been downhill since.

New crop futures have only closed above the $6 mark one time so far in 2023 - on January 13, marking its high close year-to-date.

I put together a heatmap of new crop futures performance, based on the Dec’s closing price for each of the past few years.

The patterns are undeniable - but much different in nature during 2017-2019 and then from the spring of 2020’s Covid lows into the bull market that has taken us into 2023.