What’s on my radar for 2025:
Off with a bang
The U.S. Dollar Index began 2025 on a high note, trading above 109 for the first time in over two years.
For any of us cheering on commodities this year, we can only hope the top is in.
Interestingly, the dollar’s performance leading up to and in the months following Trump’s 2024 victory mirrors the trend surrounding his first victory in 2016.
If history repeats itself, relief is on the way.
Word of the Year = Rhetoric
Speaking of the Donald…
Trade, you might ask?
One word:
And I will leave it at that.
A repeat?
While we don’t know if Trump’s second term will be a repeat of his first, clearly Dec 2025 corn will not see a repeat of 2024 as we are starting off the year some 50 cents lower than where new crop corn futures were, one year ago.
The bigger question is: will we follow the same pattern in 2025, making calendar-year highs for new crop during the first few trading days of the year?
December corn fun facts:
« A new crop sale on the first trading day of the crop year would have ranked in the ‘top-third’ of sales each year for the past decade
« That same sale would rank in the top 10% six of the last ten crop years
« Sales on the first trading day of January 2023 & 2024 would have net you 60 cents better than December’s average throughout both of those respective crop years
« Plus, a sale on day one versus a sale at the end of November in 2023 & 2024 would have left you $1.30 and 85 cents better off, respectively
**Based on daily settles of Dec corn futures during each respective calendar crop year
A Keeper
This chart is the only one to make both the End of Year and New Year HOT TAKES because it is that important.
Print it out.
Stick it on the wall.
Hell, make yourself a calendar reminder.
Repeat after me: THERE IS NOTHING MORE SEASONAL THAN DECEMBER CORN
Why?
South American corn harvest/critical points in Brazil’s Safrinha corn growing season have helped push the corn market’s seasonality a bit forward with highs often seen well-ahead of July.
Plus, we price things quickly meaning while July weather may still be critical for U.S. crop development - we trade forecasts two weeks in advance (same goes for Ukraine who shares the growing season with the U.S.).
‘Knee high by Fourth of July’ went out the window a while back.
King Corn
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