HOT TAKE 2.0

December 18

I was so anxious to hit send before the government changed its mind again that I forgot to include these two charts illustrating WHY I talk about policy/biofuels what feels like 24/7:

Lots of questions today - why were beans down so hard (-25c). While I view it as futile to justify every little move, here are a few things:

« Brazil has a 6bbu+ whopper coming on… and harvest is underway in some spots

« The BRL was down 3% today vs the dollar

« Jan bean futures actually RALLIED 4 cents in BRL today (vs down 25 cents in Chicago)

« Soybean oil is a dog at the moment

« Government handouts are never bullish

« A strong dollar is not our friend unless we are vacationing internationally

« Sure, it gives us more purchasing power theoretically but remember, other currencies are also trying to price lower in anticipation of a trade war/tariffs and contrary to the way Donald Trump says it, the American consumer gets to eat those

That is officially it for tonight.

Thanks!

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