No Bull

No Bull

Share this post

No Bull
No Bull
The Wednesday HOT TAKE

The Wednesday HOT TAKE

June 4

Jun 05, 2025
∙ Paid
1

Share this post

No Bull
No Bull
The Wednesday HOT TAKE
Share

Ten HOT Nuggets

I usually spend a lot of time talking about beans and soybean oil, but today’s update shifts the spotlight to our favorite yellow stuff - corn - which has become a major source of frustration for both farmers and traders in recent weeks.


10 | Look out below!

That crashing sound you hear is the price of cash corn in the heart of Brazil’s top-producing state taking a 40% nosedive over the past month, as favorable weather continues to boost Safrinha yield prospects.


9 | Robbing Peter to pay Paul

I am not saying a crash in domestic cash prices fixes Brazil’s tight stocks situation (both for the current crop year and prospects for 25/26).

What I am saying, however, is any additional supply contributes to easing prices.

That naturally leaves Brazil in position to bolster corn exports - being more price competitive - and satisfies some of the growing domestic demand that has been a big driver in capping exports the past few years.

Check out these changes:

From 2022/23 to the 2023/24 marketing year:

« Production -13%

« Exports -29.4%

« Ethanol demand +23%

From 2023/24 to the current marketing year:

Production +9% (this number likely grows)

Exports +12% (6 months ago this was set to be +25% YoY)

Ethanol +23% (6 months ago this was +0% YoY)

Looking at both last year (2023/24) and the current marketing year’s (2024/25) cumulative changes over the past several WASDEs - the trend is clear: exports are losing steam:

At the same time, ethanol demand continues to grow - directly related to the reduction in exports:

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to No Bull to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 No Bull Ag
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share